What can you say about a tsunami that has taken over a hundred thousand lives and has affected countless more? In the view of the United Nations, a tsunami warning system could have been in place and saved thousands, not unlike the one working in the Pacific. In fact, the information which the Pacific Ocean technology already provides could have been used to bring the countries surrounding the Indian Ocean to action.

You need only consider two readily accessibly data points to know this is true. The first is provided in the graphics interactive on The New York Times web site. Fifteen minutes after the earthquake hit, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Hawaii issued "a bulletin giving the time and location of the earth quake with a preliminary magnitude estimate of 8.0."

And here is the second data point which puts this first into context: The Christian Science Monitor quotes Yoshinobu Tsuji at the University of Tokyo's Earthquake Research Institute: "We know that a tsunami will occur if the [earthquake] magnitude is over 6.3, and that a tsunami will cause damage if it's over 7.0."

Clearly, there was going to be a dangerous tsunami. And clearly it would emanate from precisely that point on the planet. Where it went from there was simple math.

By now you've heard plenty about the flurry of missteps: faxes to the wrong public officials, non-existence information and evacuation plans, the fact that the earthquake detection system in Indonesia was knocked out two weeks before by a lightning strike. Which brings us to the technology itself.

We are now all aware of the latest methods in earthquake detection, and we know that Japan has the most advanced system with 300 earthquake sensors running 24/7. Its can predict the extent and direction of a tsunami within seconds. And why? Because Japan lies within easy reach of tsunamis, and has far less time to respond. In Japan's case, timing is everything, and yet time was on humanity's side in this recent disaster.

At the 15 minute mark, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued warnings to 26 countries, while it took nearly an hour for the first tsunami wave to reach Indonesia, two hours to reach Thailand and Sri Lanka. When an email can circle the earth in a second and a half, and a telephone call is immediate, it's hard to fathom that there was no leap from warning to effective action.

Bureaucracy, ill-preparedness and sheer bad luck all played their parts in this catastrophe, and as we begin to pour millions into new technology to avoid what may be a once-a-century event, we need to remember that it is really the human element that will make the difference.

I live in San Francisco, home of the expected earthquake; in fact, we're always waiting for what we locals refer to as "The Big One." Every school tells you where your kids will be. Every commercial building trains its tenants. We've strapped down our houses and our water heaters, and every family has casually talked about what to do when. It's an unwritten rule: No amount of technology can supplant a really good plan.

On January 18th, the United Nations will hold a conference on disaster reduction in Kobe, Japan, and its timing is so perfect, it's unnerving. While the discussion will naturally revolve around planning, technology and expenditures, perhaps we should remember there will be no perfect solutions. We humans are but guests living upon the earth, and tenuous ones at best.

I'm Moira Gunn. This is Five Minutes.

Back to Five Minutes List